For decades, Texas has been the reliable heart of the Republican Party. If you’re a Democrat running for statewide office there, you’re usually treated like a long-shot hobbyist. But this year, the atmosphere feels different.
Senator Ted Cruz is looking at the polls, and he doesn’t like what he sees. His challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, is keeping things uncomfortably close. Now, the national GOP is hitting the panic button and moving resources into a state they used to take for granted.
The money says it all
You can tell how worried a political party is by looking at their bank account. National Republican groups are now dumping millions of dollars into TV ads across the state. That’s money they’d much rather spend in traditional battlegrounds like Pennsylvania or Arizona.
But they don’t have much of a choice. If the GOP loses Texas, their path to controlling the Senate almost entirely disappears. And Allred is making them work for every single vote.
A different kind of challenger
Allred isn’t your typical Texas Democrat. He’s a former NFL linebacker who served in the Obama administration. He’s been running a campaign that focuses on local issues and avoids the far-left labels that often sink Democrats in the South.
More importantly, he’s a fundraising machine. He’s been outraising Cruz in several quarters, giving him the fuel to blanket the state with ads. In a state as massive as Texas, you simply can’t win without a massive budget.
Why the ground is shifting
Texas is changing, and it’s happening faster than some expected. The big cities—Houston, Dallas, Austin—are booming with new residents who don’t necessarily share the old-school GOP vision. These voters are more concerned about healthcare and school funding than traditional culture wars.
Republicans still have a major edge in the rural areas, which is where Cruz finds his strength. But as the suburbs move away from the GOP, that math gets harder to balance every single year.
Whether this is the year the “blue wave” finally hits Texas remains to be seen. But the fact that Republicans are spending this much time and money to defend a seat they’ve held for decades tells you everything you need to know. Nobody is taking Texas for granted anymore.